Bloomberg

Members of President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming economic team are discussing slowly ramping up tariffs month by month, a gradual approach aimed at boosting negotiating leverage while helping avoid a spike in inflation, according to people familiar with the matter.<div class="paywall-selector"></div><div class="paywall">



One idea involves a schedule of graduated tariffs increasing by about 2% to 5% a month, and would rely on executive authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the people said.



The proposal is in its early stages and has not yet been presented to Trump, the people said — a sign that a monthly stepped approach is early in the deliberation process.



Advisers working on the plan include Scott Bessent, the nominee for Treasury secretary, Kevin Hassett, set to be director of the National Economic Council, and Stephen Miran, nominated to lead the Council of Economic Advisers, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.



Hassett did not reply to a request for comment, nor did a spokesman for Bessent. Miran declined to comment.



A spokesman for Trump’s transition team referred to the president-elect’s previous public comments and&nbsp;<a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">social-media posts</a>&nbsp;about tariffs.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://fortune.com/company/universal/" target="_blank">Universal</a> Tariffs</h3>



During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump floated minimum tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imported goods, and 60% or higher on shipments from China.



Since he won the election in November, multiple reports have emerged on how aggressively he will implement tariffs — with Trump himself calling one report of a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-06/trump-says-his-tariff-policy-won-t-be-pared-back" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">measured rollout</a>&nbsp;false.



The uncertainty is leaving investors and companies guessing. The S&amp;P 500 Index earlier Monday&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/stocks-are-close-to-wiping-out-trump-bump-as-rate-fears-kick-in" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">dropped below</a>&nbsp;where it ended on Nov. 5, just before Trump was elected, before rebounding later in the day. Investors recently have been dumping Treasuries as fears grow that inflation will remain stubborn partly because of new tariffs, creating a headwind for stocks and the broader economy.



<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-01-12/treasury-gilt-bond-tantrum-is-wrenching-and-worrisome-start-to-year" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read More: Global Bond Tantrum Is Wrenching and Worrisome Start to New Year</a>



With just a week until Inauguration Day, economists can only&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-12-01/trump-trade-war-explaining-tariff-scenarios" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">guess</a>&nbsp;as to how Trump’s trade wars will influence the economy. That’s left a complicated picture for the Federal Reserve, because Trump’s tariff threats are seen as a risk to the growth outlook while potentially stoking inflation if nations retaliate.



International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that tariff threats are already driving up longer-term borrowing costs around the world.



<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/trump-tariff-fears-pushing-global-rates-higher-imf-chief-says" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read More: Trump Tariff Fears Pushing Global Rates Higher, IMF Chief Says</a>



Uncertainty about the incoming administration’s trade policies is adding to worldwide economic headwinds and “is actually expressed globally through higher long-term interest rates,” she told reporters in Washington on Friday. That’s happening even as short-term rates have gone down, a “very unusual” combination, she said.</div>

One idea involves a schedule of graduated tariffs increasing by about 2% to 5% a month.

Trump tariffs may go up monthly to avoid inflation shock

The 50 companies most likely to thrive, 5 investing trends for 2025, and more. Read the latest edition of <a href="https://fortune.com/packages/december-2024-january-2025/?&itm_source=fortune&itm_medium=article_tout&itm_campaign=DecJanMag">the magazine.</a>

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