New rate foreclosure data suggests 2020 will end with more than $ 4 trillion in mortgage origination volume, a record.

The data, from Black knights Mortgage Monitor Report, shows that rate freeze activity during the first half of October increased 4% from September, with buy locks of 6% and refinancing locks of 3%. Add bottom mortgage rates Revenue and quarterly mortgage originator volume is expected to hit record levels for both buy and refi.

This trend suggests increases volume of mortgage issuance entering the fourth quarter, remaining at record levels until at least November, according to Ben Graboske, president of data and analytics at Black Knight.

“This suggests that origination and prepayment activity will likely remain high until the fourth quarter of 2020, ”he said in a statement. “September lockdown activity held up relatively to August level, but through October 19, overall lockdown activity is up 4% from the previous month – with lockdowns of 6% purchase and 3% refinance lockdowns so far. Interest rates, which hit new records in mid-October and late October, will likely continue to fuel foreclosure activity in the weeks ahead. “

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Graboske said underlying 45-day rate freezes suggest third-quarter refinances could rise 25% from second quarter, while purchase mortgage origination volume could rise 35%. or more.

“This would push Purchase loan 2020 at the highest level since 2005 and both loan refinancing and total origination volumes at their highest levels ever, ”said Graboske. “Indeed, total loans in 2020 are on track to easily eclipse the $ 4 trillion mark for the first time in history.”

This record volume of mortgage originations occurs despite heightened volatility in financial markets and the unfavorable market refinancing fees the GSE have implemented, which is expected to come into effect on December 1.

The Black Knight report also found that home price appreciation has risen significantly since May, attributed to historically low interest rates and limited inventory. According to Black Knight’s daily home price tracking data, homes appreciated in value 11.5% in August, then hit 14.2% growth in September, the highest rate in addition to 15 years old.

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The improving economy led to a 3.10% drop in defaults in September, while the prepayment rate rose 12.7% from August. There are now about 821,000 homeowners who are one month behind on payments, down almost 20% from pre-pandemic levels, and the lowest rate since at least 2000, according to Black Knight.

About 18.5 million homeowners still meet the general underwriting criteria to reduce their mortgage by about 75 basis points through refinancing. That’s about 10.4 million more eligible homeowners than at the same time last year. According to Black Knight, the average homeowner could save $ 304 per month with a new home loan at today’s rate.

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