China’s exports surged to a record high in 2024, providing a much-needed boost for the economy as the prospect of biting tariffs imposed by U.S. president-elect Donald Trump looms.

Overseas shipments represented a rare bright spot for Beijing last year as sluggish domestic consumption and a prolonged crisis in the property sector dragged on growth.

But Trump, who imposed sweeping tariffs on China during his first term in office, has threatened even heftier levies when he returns to the White House next week.

Exports have historically represented a key driver of activity for the world’s number two economy, which officials say is likely to have grown 5% last year.

“In 2024, China’s total exports exceeded 25 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 25.45 trillion yuan ($3.47 trillion), an increase of 7.1% year-on-year,” Lu Daliang, spokesman for the General Administration of Customs, said at a news conference.

Total imports, meanwhile, rose 2.3% to 18.39 trillion yuan, Lu said.

Combined trade swelled 5% to reach a record 43.85 trillion yuan, said Wang Lingjun, vice minister of the customs administration.

“China’s position as the world’s largest goods trading nation has become even more secure,” Wang added.

Official customs data showed Monday that exports in December jumped 10.7% year-on-year, comfortably outperforming a forecast of 7.5% in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Imports last month grew 1% year-on-year, compared with a Bloomberg forecast of a 1% decline.

Observers have pointed out that exports were likely boosted by companies ramping up stockpiles ahead of Trump’s second term amid fears of a painful trade war.

‘Resilient’

China’s shipments “are likely to stay resilient in the near-term”, Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.

“But outbound shipments will weaken later this year if Trump follows through on his threat to impose 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods,” she wrote.

“We estimate this could reduce export volumes by about 3% and shave roughly 0.5% off China’s GDP,”

Beijing has since September announced some of its most aggressive policy measures in years as officials try to kickstart the economy, which has so far failed to achieve a full post-pandemic recovery.

The steps have included the cancellation of certain restrictions on homebuying, subsidies for the purchasing of household items and key interest rate cuts.

“With the help of strong exports and macro policy easing, the economic momentum likely stabilised,” wrote Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note Monday following the publication of the trade figures.

The government is due to release 2024 economic growth data later this week. President Xi Jinping has recently expressed confidence that the country achieved an official target of around 5%.

Many economists say more policy support targeted at incentivising domestic consumption is needed to restore China’s economic health.

The country narrowly avoided a slip into deflation in December, official figures showed last week, suggesting that recent measures have not yet produced a robust rebound in domestic spending.

Low inflation may lead to an increase of real interest rates, said Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“So monetary easing policy needs to be more proactive to really reduce the borrowing cost of enterprises, which is important for a broad recovery of the economy,” she told AFP.

The International Monetary Fund has previously predicted China’s economy would grow 4.8% in 2024 before slowing to 4.5% this year.

China reports record exports before the return of Donald Trump and a possible new trade war